1. The quarterly production t of pine lumber, in million of board feet, by Nortwst lumber since 2004 is

Year

Quarterly

Winter Spring Summer Fall
2004 7.8 10.2 14.7 9.3
2005 6.9 11.6 17.5 9.3
2006 8.9 9.7 15.3 10.1
2007 10.7 12.4 16.8 10.7
2008 9.2 13.6 17.1 10.3

(Lind., Marchal., Wathen., Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics., Ms Graw Hill., Fourteeth Edition., number 28 page 631)

  1. Determine the typical seasonal pattern for the production data using the ration moving average method jawab no 1 a
  2. Interpret the pattern jawab no 1 b
  3. Deseasonalized the data jawab no 1c and determine the linear trend equation jawab no c ‘
  4. Project the seasonally adjusted production for the four quarter of 2009 jawab no 1d
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